The ongoing discussion surrounding SPFL league reconstruction has ignited passionate debates among fans, pundits, and the Scottish footballing community at large. The governing body appears to be seriously considering a restructuring of the Premiership, with potential formats ranging from 10 to 16 teams. While many supporters long for an expanded league with more diversity, the reality is that altering the number of teams alone is unlikely to improve the overall quality or attractiveness of Scottish football.
The Push for a 10-Team League
A return to a 10-team league seems to be the most favored option among the decision-makers within the SPFL hierarchy. This setup is appealing from a logistical standpoint, as it simplifies fixture scheduling and ensures that clubs play each other multiple times, generating high-profile fixtures such as the Glasgow, Edinburgh, and potentially Dundee derbies at least four times per season. Given the financial and viewership draw of these matches, it is easy to understand why the SPFL would see this model as the most commercially viable.
However, the prospect of shrinking the league has been met with significant backlash. Critics argue that reducing the number of teams will result in a stale and repetitive competition, where smaller clubs struggle to compete, and the same teams dominate year after year. The concern is that a 10-team league would limit opportunities for growth among clubs outside the established elite, making it even harder for teams like Aberdeen, Hearts, and Hibs to challenge the Old Firm’s dominance. This system also brings greater financial insecurity for clubs at the lower end of the table, as relegation from a smaller league becomes an even harsher blow, potentially dooming clubs to prolonged spells outside the top flight.
Alternative Models: 14 or 16-Team Leagues
The idea of a 14 or 16-team league is an enticing one for many supporters, as it would introduce a broader variety of matchups and allow for the inclusion of clubs like Falkirk, Livingston, Ayr United, Partick Thistle, Raith Rovers, and Dunfermline. Such an expansion could help spread the game’s appeal across more regions of Scotland, fostering greater local engagement and fan enthusiasm. A broader league could also offer a better platform for young Scottish players to develop at a high level, which in turn would benefit the national team.
However, logistical concerns make these proposals more complex. A 14-team league would likely involve a split after two rounds of fixtures, which has historically led to awkward and sometimes unfair scheduling issues. A 16-team league, on the other hand, would reduce the total number of games to just 30 per club, which could have financial implications for broadcasting deals and club revenues. Fewer games mean less revenue from ticket sales, sponsorships, and TV rights, all of which are crucial to sustaining clubs outside of the Old Firm.
An 18-Team League: A Theoretical Ideal
In an ideal world, an 18-team league playing 34 matches per season, with three teams relegated and three promoted from a similarly sized Championship, would offer the best balance of variety and competitiveness. This structure would introduce more fresh matchups throughout the season and provide a greater opportunity for clubs to establish themselves at the top level. It would also provide a more inclusive structure for Scottish football, ensuring that promising sides from the lower divisions get a fair chance to develop and thrive in the top flight.
However, this model also comes with its own set of challenges. While it would be exciting for supporters to see more teams compete in the top flight, it is difficult to argue that the likes of Falkirk, Ayr United, or Raith Rovers would significantly enhance the overall quality of the league. Attractiveness and competitiveness are not solely determined by the number of teams involved; the standard of football must also improve. Without addressing deeper structural issues in Scottish football, an 18-team league would likely do little more than spread existing resources more thinly. Additionally, smaller clubs may struggle to meet the financial and infrastructural requirements necessary to compete at the top level, potentially leading to a widening gap between the strongest and weakest teams.
The Need for Structural Improvements
If the SPFL is serious about improving Scottish football, league reconstruction should be accompanied by broader reforms. A clear set of criteria should be established for clubs entering the Premiership, including mandatory grass pitches, adequate stadium facilities, a minimum allocation for away supporters, and a commitment to youth development. Additionally, reviving a robust reserve league could be instrumental in bridging the gap between academy prospects and first-team football. These measures would help raise the overall standard of the game, ensuring that an expanded league remains competitive and financially viable.
A pressing concern is the potential impact on mid-table and lower-end Premiership clubs such as St Johnstone, Ross County, and Kilmarnock. If the league shrinks, these teams could find themselves excluded from the top tier, which could be financially devastating. On the other hand, if the league expands, these clubs would need to adapt quickly to ensure they remain competitive against newly promoted sides. In either case, stability must be a key focus for decision-makers, as reckless restructuring could create long-term problems rather than solutions.
Has the Split System Worked?
Despite its criticisms, the league split has generally been successful in adding intrigue to the latter stages of the season. However, the format only remains engaging when there are key battles still to be decided—whether for the title, European spots, or relegation places. In seasons where there is a runaway leader, the split does little to add excitement. The unpredictability factor is what makes football thrilling, and the current split system does not always deliver that.
In the SWPL1, the split has created a dynamic competition where several teams remain in contention for the title. This season, five out of the six post-split teams still have a chance at winning the league. Imagine if the same were true in the men’s Premiership—how much more thrilling would the competition be if multiple teams were genuinely vying for the title? Unfortunately, this remains a distant dream, as Celtic and Rangers are financially miles ahead of the rest.
The Elephant in the Room: Celtic and Rangers’ Dominance
The harsh reality is that Scottish football’s competitiveness is stifled by the overwhelming financial and sporting dominance of Celtic and Rangers. These two clubs operate on a completely different level compared to the rest of the league. While the idea of them joining the English football system has been floated for decades, it remains an unlikely scenario due to political, logistical, and legal barriers.
If they were to leave, however, the Scottish Premiership would become a far more unpredictable and competitive league. Without the Old Firm, there would be multiple genuine title contenders, and the distribution of prize money would be more balanced. Of course, this is all hypothetical, as there is no realistic avenue for such a move to occur. Even if it did, Celtic and Rangers would likely maintain their Scottish identity by continuing to participate in domestic cup competitions, much like Welsh clubs playing in the English system.
The Likely Outcome: A 10-Team League
While there are many potential routes Scottish football could take, the most probable outcome is the adoption of a 10-team league. The financial appeal of more high-profile matches will likely outweigh concerns about reduced diversity. This decision, if implemented, will be met with resistance from fans who fear it will lead to a less dynamic league structure.
Ultimately, Scottish football’s issues run far deeper than league size. Without significant investment in player development, infrastructure, and long-term strategic planning, no restructuring plan will be a silver bullet. Until those challenges are addressed, the league will remain largely as it is—dominated by two clubs, with the rest scrapping for what remains.
As always, the debate will rage on, but one thing is certain: change is coming, whether fans like it or not.
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